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The Portal by New Visions provides graduation projections for non-transfer NYCPS high schools. These projections are designed to help school leaders and staff understand the range of possible outcomes for their graduating cohort, informed by actual outcomes of past students, and to quickly hone in on students who need attention.
Here is everything you need to know!
Graduation Projections
Go to Graduation -> Graduation Projections to view projections for your school.
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You'll notice three possible outcomes are provided: a conservative outcome, a moderate outcome, and an optimistic outcome. These school-level outcomes are based on individual, student-level likelihood bands assigned to each active student in your graduating cohort. These bands are developed by our analytics team by comparing current students to students with similar credits and Regents progress in past cohorts at the beginning of each term.
How are likelihood bands generated and assigned?
Currently active high school students are assigned one of the 5 following likelihood bands based on their credits earned and Regents passed at the beginning of each term of high school; these likelihood bands reflect the historic graduation rates of students with similar credits and Regents progress:
Very Likely: 90-100% historic graduation rate
Likely: 80-90%
Probable: 65-80%
Possible: 50-65%
Needs Review: less than 50%
For example, the table below represents the historic graduation rates of students by credit and Regents categories at the beginning of their 4th year of high school; a student entering their 4th year of high school with 34 credits earned and 4 Regents passed would be categorized as "Likely" since the historic graduation rate of students with 32-36 credits and 4 Regents passed was 86%.
How are the likelihood bands used to project graduation outcomes?
Individual likelihood bands are rolled up into school-level graduation projections:
Students who are the most likely to graduate are included in a school's conservative graduation projection (80% likelihood and greater)
The moderate projection includes additional students who are less likely but probable (65% likelihood and greater)
The optimistic projection includes additional students who are less likely but possible (50% likelihood and greater)
